Solar Eruptions and Geomagnetic Consequences

Haimin Wang
Big Bear Solar Observatory 
Physics Department, NJIT, Newark, NJ 07102, USA
Phone: 973-596-5781, Fax: 973-596-3617

This talk summarizes the work at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) related
to Space Weather Forecasting.

(1) We use high resolution vector magnetograph data from BBSO to monitor
the magnetic structure of solar active regions continuously.  The
quantitative parameters that we are developing, which will aid forecasts,
include integrated magnetic shear and total as well as net vertical
electrical currents in the target active regions. Both current and shear
represent free energy stored in magnetic fields.

(2) We use the data from our four-station Halpha network (located at BBSO,
Kanzelhohe Solar Observatory in Austria, and the Yunnan and Huairou
Observatories in China) to continuously monitor the whole sun with 1
arcsec pixel resolution and 1 minute cadence. This unique data set enables
us to provide real time reports of all flux emergences, filament
disappearances and flares - all with high resolution and cadence. Based on
the detailed structure of the active regions and filaments, we can predict
the probability of flaring in each particular region and the probability
of the eruption of filaments.

(3) We carry out a statistical study of filament eruptions and flares,
their underlying magnetic structure, the onset of Coronal Mass Ejections,
interplanetary magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms. The results from
this statistical study provides better tools for predicting solar activity
and geomagnetic storms. Filament eruptions and flares are compared with
magnetic field data observed by ACE and Wind, and with geomagnetic
indices.